As frontier models grow more capable and the cost of frontier-level performance continues to fall, transformative AI is approaching quickly. Navigating it well requires a coherent picture of where AGI is headed, one that integrates technical progress with the political dynamics of an AGI arms race. This reading and discussion group is dedicated to building shared understanding around the crucial questions of transformative AI. Fellows engage in forecasting informed by scaling laws, threat modeling, and a tabletop wargame exercise, culminating in each fellow writing their own AGI takeoff scenario.
Explore various epoch AI papers and engage in interactive forecasting exercises.
Situational awareness and scaling analysis
Interactive workshop on AI forecasting
Deep dive into deceptive alignment and its implications.
Critical analysis of deceptive alignment risks
Different ways that AI risk could manifest
Explore concrete scenarios and encourage constructive debate
Examine model organisms and their role in alignment research.
The case for a new pillar of alignment research
Analysis of how AI models may fake alignment
Come up with your own ideas for model organisms & critiques
Participate in an immersive AGI tabletop wargame simulation.
Content to be announced.
Continue and conclude the AGI tabletop wargame simulation.
Content to be announced.
Analyze unipolar vs. bipolar takeoff scenarios and AGI realism.
A critique from an Oxford international relations scholar
Analysis of strategic implications
Synthesize your learning by writing your own AGI takeoff scenario.
Example scenario for inspiration
